Memorial Day Weekend Gas Prices 2026: What to Expect

Memorial Day weekend is May 23-25, 2026, two weeks out as of this writing. Three factors are stacking into the holiday window: the summer blend gasoline transition that took effect May 1, ongoing refinery disruption in the Midwest after the Joliet outage, and the seasonal demand bump that pushes US gas consumption 4-8% above its spring weekday baseline during the long weekend.

Expect pump prices to stay elevated through the holiday and likely tick higher in the week leading up to it. Here is what is driving the forecast and where gas will still be relatively cheap.

Why Memorial Day weekend usually sees price increases

Three structural patterns produce the holiday bump every year:

Demand stacking. Memorial Day kicks off the US summer driving season. Holiday weekend travel pushes daily gasoline consumption from the typical 9.0 million barrels per day baseline up to 9.5-9.7 million barrels per day. That additional demand has to be sourced from the same refining capacity, and refiners pass the cost increase through to wholesale prices within 5-10 days.

Summer blend gasoline. EPA reformulated gasoline (RFG) standards took effect May 1, 2026. Summer blend has lower volatility than winter blend to reduce evaporative emissions in warm weather, but it costs refiners 5-15¢/gal more to produce. Most of that cost reaches the pump within two weeks of the transition. Memorial Day falls right inside that pass-through window.

Retailer pricing discipline. Stations know holiday demand is inelastic. Drivers fill up before a road trip whether prices rose 10¢/gal that week or not. So stations are less likely to absorb wholesale increases in the run-up to the holiday than during slower demand windows.

What's different about Memorial Day 2026

Two specific 2026 factors compound the standard pattern:

Joliet refinery disruption. ExxonMobil's Joliet, Illinois refinery began experiencing operational issues in early May. The 270,000-barrel-per-day facility supplies a large share of Midwest gasoline, and Illinois retail prices have jumped to around $4.98/gal per GasBuddy data, more than $1.40 above Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin averages. PADD 2 (the Midwest petroleum administration district) operates with thinner spare refining capacity than the Gulf Coast, so a single major refinery stumble has outsized regional impact. For a deeper look at the Joliet situation, see our Illinois gas spike explainer.

Crude markets. The Iran/Hormuz situation that drove crude above $100/bbl earlier in 2026 has eased, with WTI back in the high-$70s to mid-$80s range as of mid-May. China has been reselling crude cargoes to European and Asian buyers, which has offset some of the Hormuz-related supply tightness. Wholesale crude is not the binding constraint on Memorial Day prices this year. Refining capacity and summer blend timing are.

Cheapest states for Memorial Day weekend

The states with reliable Gulf Coast refinery access and lower fuel taxes will continue to lead on price. Recent EIA data and station-level reporting suggest the following will remain the cheapest fill-up zones over Memorial Day:

• Oklahoma ($3.20-3.40/gal range). Major oil-producing state with local refining capacity. Low state taxes.
• Texas ($3.30-3.55/gal). Home to the largest concentration of US refineries, especially the Houston-Port Arthur-Corpus Christi corridor. The Gulf Coast refinery cluster insulates Texas from most regional supply shocks.
• Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana ($3.30-3.55/gal). Gulf Coast adjacency, lower state taxes, low retailer competition keeping prices down.
• Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska ($3.35-3.60/gal). Magellan and Williams pipeline access from the Gulf Coast plus low state gas taxes.

Anyone driving through these states for a long weekend trip can fill up with 50-80¢/gal less per gallon than in coastal markets.

Most expensive states

California ($5.20-5.60/gal). Structural CARB blend requirements, cap-and-trade, and the highest state gas tax stack in the country. California is always the most expensive market by a wide margin during summer driving season. For the full California breakdown, see our research on why California gas is the highest.

Illinois ($4.80-5.10/gal at current levels). The Joliet refinery issue is the unusual contributor on top of Illinois's normal 53¢/gal city + county + state tax stack (in Chicago).

Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Nevada ($4.30-4.80/gal). West Coast supply chain dependence on California refineries plus high state taxes.

Pennsylvania ($3.85-4.10/gal). Highest state gas tax in the country at 57.6¢/gal. The pump price reflects that tax burden year-round, but it gets more visible during high-demand windows.

Smart fill-up timing for the holiday weekend

Empirical pricing patterns suggest a clear timing strategy:

• Fill up Tuesday or Wednesday before Memorial Day weekend. Mid-week prices are reliably lower than Thursday-Sunday prices. The gap widens during high-demand windows.
• Avoid Friday and Saturday before the holiday. Stations raise prices into peak weekend demand starting Thursday afternoon.
• If driving long-distance, fill up at the cheapest state on your route, not at your start or end. A 15-gallon tank in Oklahoma at $3.30 vs. Pennsylvania at $4.00 is $10.50 of savings on a single fill-up.
• Skip interstate exit stations. Highway stations charge 10-20¢/gal more than stations a half-mile off the exit. On a holiday road trip with multiple fill-ups, that compounds.

How to actually save during the holiday weekend

A few practical habits that reliably cut your holiday gas spend:

• Search by ZIP on Gas Price Check before any fill-up. Within most metros, the cheapest and most expensive stations are 30-50¢/gal apart on the same day. That spread is 2-3x what state-level averages move during a holiday week.
• Use warehouse clubs if you have a membership. Costco, Sam's Club, and BJ's typically run 20-30¢/gal below surrounding stations and hold that gap through demand spikes.
• Cross state lines if you live near a border. Texas drivers near the Oklahoma line, Pennsylvania drivers near the Ohio or West Virginia line, and Illinois drivers near the Indiana line all have meaningful arbitrage opportunities.
• Keep tires properly inflated. A tire pressure gauge takes seconds to use before a fill-up. Properly inflated tires improve fuel economy by up to 3%, worth real money on a holiday road trip with several hundred miles driven.
• Mount your phone for navigation. A phone mount keeps turn-by-turn directions hands-free so you can route to a cheaper station across town without juggling your phone.

The forecast

Realistic outlook for the next 14 days:

• National average likely drifts up 5-15¢/gal from current levels into the weekend, then plateaus through the holiday. Some downward movement possible in the week after Memorial Day if Joliet resumes normal output.
• Illinois stays elevated through the weekend regardless. A fully restored Joliet would not propagate retail price relief until early to mid June.
• California stays at $5+ through the weekend as it does most of the year.
• Gulf Coast and Plains states stay at their structural premium below the national average, with modest 3-8¢ upticks for the holiday window.

Memorial Day weekend is not the cheapest time to drive, but it is also not historically the most expensive. Knowing your state's pricing environment and timing fill-ups around mid-week is worth $10-30 over the long weekend for most drivers.

For state-by-state current averages updated daily, see our gas prices by state overview. For the federal gas tax suspension question that came up this week, see our federal gas tax explainer.

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