GasBuddy released its 2026 Summer Travel Survey on May 20, projecting a Memorial Day national gasoline average of $4.48 per gallon and a summer-long average of $4.80 from Memorial Day through Labor Day. The forecast assumes continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. A year ago, Memorial Day gas averaged $3.14 per gallon. The $1.48 year-over-year jump lands on top of new vehicle prices that have not retreated, on top of auto loan rates that have only modestly declined from 2025 highs, and on top of a record share of trade-ins that arrive at the dealership underwater.
This article works through the five-year math on two reference vehicles representative of where buyers actually shop in 2026: a Ford F-150 XLT priced near the Kelley Blue Book April 2026 full-size pickup average transaction price of $66,705, and a 2026 Toyota Camry Hybrid LE priced near its $30,595 MSRP. Every fact below ties to a primary or secondary source listed in the citations section.
The two reference vehicles
Choosing comparable vehicles matters because the math is sensitive to assumptions. We deliberately chose mid-market trims, not the cheapest available and not luxury options:
- 2026 Ford F-150 XLT. Representative of where the full-size pickup segment actually transacts. Kelley Blue Book's April 2026 average transaction price for full-size pickups was $66,705, up 2.9 percent year over year. EPA combined fuel economy for the gasoline F-150 ranges 19 to 23 mpg depending on engine and drivetrain; we use 21 mpg combined as a mid-trim representative figure.
- 2026 Toyota Camry Hybrid LE. The Camry is hybrid-only for the 2026 model year, with the LE FWD returning an EPA-rated 51 mpg combined. MSRP is approximately $30,595 including destination charge. This is essentially the price most LE buyers see on the window sticker.
Both vehicles are mass-market segment leaders. Neither is exotic. A buyer walking into a Ford dealer or a Toyota dealer this Memorial Day weekend can transact on either at approximately these numbers.
The 2026 fuel-cost gap
The Federal Highway Administration reports US drivers average about 13,500 miles per year, with the working-age population (20 to 54) closer to 15,000 miles per year. State-level variation is wide: New York averages about 9,548 miles per driver per year, Wyoming about 21,589. We use 13,500 miles as the baseline scenario and address mileage sensitivity later.
At 13,500 annual miles, the gasoline consumption math is:
- F-150 XLT at 21 mpg combined: 642.9 gallons per year.
- Camry Hybrid LE at 51 mpg combined: 264.7 gallons per year.
- Annual gap: 378.2 gallons.
At the GasBuddy Memorial Day 2026 forecast of $4.48 per gallon, that gap translates to $1,694 in additional annual fuel cost for the F-150 driver over the Camry Hybrid driver. Over five years that is $8,470 in fuel-cost difference. At the GasBuddy summer-average forecast of $4.80 per gallon, the annual gap rises to $1,815, or $9,075 over five years.
The same exercise on last year's Memorial Day $3.14 average yields an annual gap of $1,188 and a five-year gap of $5,940. The year-over-year jump in gasoline prices alone widened the five-year fuel-cost gap between these two vehicles by $2,530.
The financing math at 7.04 percent
Bankrate's weekly survey on May 20, 2026 puts the average 60-month new-car loan rate at 7.04 percent. This is down modestly from roughly 7.50 percent at the start of 2025. Experian Q4 2025 data shows super-prime borrowers (FICO 781 and above) average about 4.66 percent on new auto loans, while deep subprime borrowers average about 16.01 percent. The 7.04 figure is a broad-market average closer to what a typical prime borrower (FICO 661 to 780) actually pays.
The average new vehicle loan term in 2026 is 68.9 months per Experian, with 31.78 percent of new loans extending to 73 months or more. We use a 72-month term as the modal example because it is the most common loan length among recent originations and the natural threshold above which longer-term lending has accelerated.
At 20 percent down (a more disciplined buyer's starting position) on a 72-month loan at 7.04 percent:
- F-150 XLT financing: $13,341 down. $53,364 financed. Monthly payment of approximately $911. Total interest over 72 months of approximately $12,228.
- Camry Hybrid LE financing: $6,119 down. $24,476 financed. Monthly payment of approximately $418. Total interest over 72 months of approximately $5,620.
- Monthly payment gap: $493.
That $493 monthly payment gap, alone, is enough to push some prime borrowers below the lender's payment-to-income threshold. The average new-vehicle monthly payment in Q4 2025 per Experian was $767. The F-150 payment of $911 sits above that average. The Camry payment of $418 sits well below.
Five-year total cost comparison
The five-year cost comparison combines down payment, 60 months of loan payments (still within the 72-month term, with one year of payments remaining at year five), and five years of fuel cost at the GasBuddy Memorial Day forecast:
- F-150 XLT five-year cash out: $13,341 down plus $54,660 in payments (60 months at $911) plus $14,400 in fuel ($2,880 per year at 21 mpg and $4.48 per gallon) equals $82,401. At the end of year five the buyer still owes approximately $10,932 in remaining payments.
- Camry Hybrid LE five-year cash out: $6,119 down plus $25,080 in payments (60 months at $418) plus $5,930 in fuel ($1,186 per year at 51 mpg and $4.48 per gallon) equals $37,129. Remaining payments at year five total approximately $5,016.
- Five-year cash difference: $45,272 more cash out the door for the F-150 buyer.
- Six-year total (loan paid off): Approximately $52,872 more total cost for the F-150 buyer than the Camry Hybrid buyer.
These figures exclude insurance (which the F-150 is roughly 10 to 25 percent higher on, depending on coverage), registration and personal property tax (which scale with vehicle value), maintenance (the F-150 averages higher), and resale value (where the F-150 historically holds value better, partially offsetting the depreciation gap). The comparison is intentionally narrow: financed purchase price plus interest plus fuel.
What the $1.48 gas-price swing changed
The interesting question is not the absolute five-year gap. It is what changed from 2025 to 2026. With gas at last year's $3.14 Memorial Day average, the fuel-cost component of the F-150 vs Camry gap was $5,940 over five years. At this year's $4.48 forecast, that fuel-cost gap is $8,470. The difference of $2,530 is purely the gas-price-driven swing.
In monthly terms, the $1.48 per gallon gas-price increase shifts the F-150 vs Camry comparison by about $42 per month in fuel cost differential. That sounds small. But financing $42 per month over 60 months at 7.04 percent corresponds to about $2,124 in additional vehicle affordability. In effect, the gas-price spike makes the F-150 roughly $2,100 to $2,500 less affordable on a payment-equivalent basis, with no change in sticker price.
For high-mileage drivers, the swing scales linearly. A Wyoming driver at 21,589 miles per year sees the gas-price-driven swing widen to approximately $4,100 over five years on the same vehicle comparison, equivalent to roughly $3,400 in payment-equivalent vehicle affordability.
What the dealer-distress data is showing
Two parallel datasets reveal how buyers are absorbing the affordability squeeze in 2026:
- Underwater trade-ins at a record share. Edmunds reported in Q1 2026 that 30.9 percent of trade-ins toward new-vehicle purchases carried negative equity, the highest share for any quarter since Q1 2021. The average underwater trade-in carried $7,183 in negative equity. Twenty-six percent of underwater trade-ins carried more than $10,000 in rolled-over debt and 9.3 percent exceeded $15,000. The average age of an underwater trade-in reached 4.3 years, a record high, indicating that buyers are holding loans longer but still arriving underwater.
- Loan terms stretching past 72 months. Among new-vehicle buyers rolling negative equity into a new loan, Edmunds reports that 90.2 percent of those loans now carry terms of 72 months or more, and 43 percent extend to 84 months. The average new-vehicle monthly payment for these buyers is $932, $159 above the typical car buyer's payment. The longer terms keep monthly payments manageable, but they extend the time spent underwater on the next loan as well.
- Subprime delinquency at a 32-year high. Fitch Ratings data via Wolf Street reporting puts the subprime 60-plus-day delinquency rate at 6.90 percent in January 2026, a 385-month record (roughly 32 years). Prime borrowers remained near 0.5 to 0.6 percent. The gap between prime and subprime performance has rarely been wider. Total auto loan balances outstanding reached $1.68 trillion per the New York Fed Q1 2026 consumer credit report.
The combined picture: buyers in 2026 are paying more, financing for longer, rolling more negative equity, and defaulting at higher rates than at any point in the last three decades on the subprime end. The truck-vs-sedan decision that used to be primarily about utility versus efficiency is now also about whether the financing structure leaves any margin for adverse events.
When the truck math still works
The five-year cost gap is not an argument against trucks. It is an accounting of where the money goes. The truck math still works straightforwardly in three scenarios:
- Income-generating use. Contractors, tradespeople, landscapers, ranchers, and similar buyers use trucks as a tool that generates revenue. The fuel-cost differential becomes a deductible business expense and the truck's utility value is captured in earnings the sedan could not produce.
- Towing or hauling that the sedan cannot do. Buyers with boats, RVs, trailers, or routine 1,500-plus pound payload needs cannot substitute a sedan at any price. The math is simply not a choice.
- Long-tenure ownership. The five-year framing penalizes vehicles with strong long-term durability. A buyer who plans to keep a truck for 12 to 15 years captures more of the depreciation curve's flat tail, narrowing the financing-cost gap considerably.
When the sedan math wins decisively
In several common buyer profiles, the sedan math is now decisive enough that the financing comparison ends the conversation:
- Commuter use under 18,000 miles per year. A sedan or hybrid sedan returns enough fuel savings to amortize the lower vehicle cost and finance with less stretch on the loan term.
- First-time buyers and recent graduates. The $493 monthly payment differential between an F-150 XLT and a Camry Hybrid LE on a 72-month loan represents roughly 0.6 percent of a $90,000 household pretax income, which compounds when added to insurance, fuel, and the typical apartment-rent or first-mortgage step-up.
- Negative-equity trade-in scenarios. Edmunds Q1 2026 data shows the average new-vehicle monthly payment for buyers rolling negative equity into the new loan is $932. The Camry Hybrid LE at $418 per month leaves roughly $500 per month of headroom to absorb rolled-over debt without pushing the borrower into the 84-month and 90-month loan terms that Edmunds identifies as the highest-distress segment.
- Two-vehicle households. Households with a primary truck for utility plus a daily commuter benefit asymmetrically from making the commuter the most fuel-efficient option. The combined household fuel bill is more responsive to the commuter vehicle's MPG than to the truck's.
Methodology and data sources
All transaction prices, loan rates, fuel-economy figures, and delinquency statistics come from the primary or secondary sources listed in the citations section. The GasBuddy $4.48 Memorial Day and $4.80 summer-average forecasts come from the GasBuddy 2026 Summer Travel Survey released May 20, 2026. Average transaction prices come from the Kelley Blue Book April 2026 ATP report by Cox Automotive published May 12, 2026. The 7.04 percent 60-month new-car loan rate comes from the Bankrate weekly survey updated May 20, 2026. Loan term and credit-tier breakdowns come from Experian's Q4 2025 State of the Automotive Finance Market report and Q1 2026 follow-ups. Underwater trade-in statistics come from the Edmunds Q1 2026 Insights Report. Subprime delinquency figures come from Fitch Ratings via Wolf Street's May 19, 2026 reporting. Federal Highway Administration mileage data is from the most recent Highway Statistics publication (Table VM-1). EPA fuel economy figures come from EPA fueleconomy.gov via Edmunds and Cars.com aggregations.
Monthly payment calculations use the standard amortization formula with monthly compounding at the cited annual rate (7.04 percent annual converts to a monthly rate of approximately 0.5867 percent). 20 percent down was selected as a disciplined buyer profile, not the median actual down payment, which is lower. Five-year fuel cost uses constant annual mileage and constant gas price, neither of which is realistic but both of which simplify the comparison. The 21 mpg combined figure for the F-150 XLT and 51 mpg combined for the Camry Hybrid LE are EPA combined ratings. Real-world fuel economy typically runs 10 to 15 percent below EPA ratings, which would widen rather than narrow the truck-vs-sedan gap.
Related pages
- Memorial Day 2026 gas price outlook. The structural analysis behind the GasBuddy $4.48 forecast: Strait of Hormuz closure, record SPR drawdowns, refining margins, and the four-week forward signals to watch.
- The 2026 motor oil squeeze. Why motor oil got expensive in 2026 and what it means for car owners. Affects both trucks and sedans differently depending on viscosity grade.
- The 2026 refining margin squeeze. The 3-2-1 crack spread that explains why gas, diesel, and lubricants are all up at once.
- Insurify review. Truck owners pay roughly 10 to 25 percent more in auto insurance than sedan owners on equivalent coverage. Comparing quotes across multiple insurers regularly is the cheapest line item to fix in the truck-vs-sedan comparison.
- Current gas prices by state. The current state-by-state context that determines the actual annual fuel-cost gap for any given driver.
- City and metro gas-price explainers. Local-market context for buyers comparing the truck-vs-sedan math in their specific commuter geography.