Research

The 2026 SPR drawdown crisis

Two all-time weekly Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown records broken in two consecutive weeks. The structural story is the reserve halving over fifteen years, the Strait of Hormuz closure driving emergency releases, and a refill-asymmetry math that means undoing this is measured in years not weeks.

Published 2026-05-20 by Gas Price Check

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve just broke its all-time weekly drawdown record. Then it broke the new record one week later. The May 20, 2026 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed 9.92 million barrels released from the SPR for the week ending May 15. The May 13 report had shown 8.6 million barrels for the prior week, itself a new record breaking the 8.4 million barrel high set in September 2022. Two consecutive all-time weekly records in two weeks is structurally unprecedented in the EIA data series.

Bloombergs Javier Blas put the combined commercial-plus-SPR draw at roughly 17.8 million barrels, the largest weekly fall since the data series begins in 1982. Bloombergs Joe Weisenthal noted that the SPR drawdown set new records on both an absolute and percentage basis simultaneously. This article traces what is actually happening upstream, why the percentage record is the structurally more important number, and what it means for the price drivers reaching your local pump over the next two to three weeks.

What happened, in order

The two-week record-breaking sequence sits inside a longer arc that started in February 2026:

  1. February 28, 2026: US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Surprise airstrikes targeting military and government sites, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed in the operation. The action started the 2026 Iran war.
  2. Late February 2026: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. Initially closed to all foreign shipping, then on March 27 the IRGC announced the strait was closed to any vessel going to or from US, Israeli, or allied ports. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally transits this chokepoint.
  3. April 13, 2026: US imposes naval blockade on Iran. Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks. CENTCOM reported over 10,000 US personnel, more than a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft enforcing the operation within the first 24 hours.
  4. May 13, 2026: First all-time weekly SPR drawdown record broken. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report shows 8.6 million barrels released for the week ending May 8. Breaks the prior all-time high of 8.4 million barrels set in September 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine response.
  5. May 20, 2026 (today): Second consecutive record broken. EIA report shows 9.92 million barrels released for the week ending May 15. Breaks the just-set 8.6 million barrel record by an additional 15%. SPR balance drops to 374.2 million barrels.
  6. May 2026 (ongoing): Hormuz negotiations via Pakistan. Iran delivered a new proposal to the US via Pakistani mediators on April 27, prioritizing reopening of the strait and lifting the naval blockade first, with nuclear talks postponed to a later phase.

The denominator story

The percentage-basis record breaking is the structurally more important number than the absolute. Here is why:

  • January 2010 peak: 726.6 million barrels, the all-time SPR high after the Bush administrations post-9/11 refill program. Authorized capacity is 727 million barrels.
  • 2022 Biden drawdown: 180 million barrels released March through October 2022 in response to Russias invasion of Ukraine. The release brought the SPR to roughly 350 million barrels by late 2022.
  • 2022-2024 refill: The DOE secured approximately 200 million barrels of refill through direct purchases (59 million), congressional cancellation of mandated sales (140 million), and exchange returns (5 million). The reserve was rebuilt to roughly 413 million barrels by December 2025.
  • April 2026: Reserve sat at 409 million barrels, before the Strait of Hormuz crisis-related drawdowns accelerated.
  • May 15, 2026: Reserve at 374.2 million barrels, approximately 51% of authorized capacity and roughly 48% below the 2010 peak.

The percentage math: 9.92 million barrels divided by 374.2 million is about 2.65%. The prior 2022 percentage records, with the SPR at roughly 600 million barrels, ran around 1.4% per week even at the worst point. The percentage record was bigger this week not because the absolute draw was 18% larger but because the denominator shrank materially between the two crises. A shrunken reserve absorbs each subsequent record-breaking draw harder.

The refill asymmetry math

The SPRs four storage sites in Texas and Louisiana have very different drawdown and fill capabilities, a deliberate design choice when the reserve was built in the 1970s and 1980s for emergency response. The drawdown capacity is fast because emergency releases must scale immediately. The fill capacity is slow because routine refills do not need to scale quickly.

  • Maximum drawdown rate: 4.4 million barrels per day across all four sites combined, sustainable for up to 90 days per DOE specifications.
  • Maximum refill rate: 785,000 barrels per day across all four sites combined. About one-sixth of the drawdown capacity.
  • Resulting asymmetry: Roughly 5.6 to 1. The DOE can drain 5.6 barrels for every barrel it can refill in the same time window.

Applied to this weeks 9.92 million barrel drawdown: refilling that single week alone takes approximately 13 days at peak fill capacity. Applied to the cumulative ~35 million barrels drained in May 2026 alone: about 45 days at peak fill. Applied to restoring the reserve from its 374.2 million barrel current level to the 2010 peak of 726.6 million: roughly 449 days, or 15 months, at peak fill, assuming no further draws and no interruptions. Real refill happens in much smaller increments through congressional appropriations and DOE solicitations, so realistic full-restoration timelines stretch out across multiple years and presidential administrations.

Why now: the Hormuz dimension

The drawdowns are not policy-driven the way Bidens 2022 releases were. Those were a deliberate political response to Russia-Ukraine gasoline-price politics, released at roughly 1 million barrels per day on a planned schedule. The 2026 record-breaking releases are emergency stabilization in response to a physical supply shock. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, US refiners cannot reliably source the same crude grades on global markets, and the DOE is releasing SPR crude to keep domestic refineries running.

Three reinforcing pressures are pulling the reserve down simultaneously:

  • Crude logistics through Hormuz: Approximately 20% of global oil supply normally passes through the strait. With shipping disrupted and a US naval blockade enforced since April 13, alternative sourcing requires longer routes (typically South Africa around the Cape) and higher freight costs.
  • Pre-Memorial Day driving demand: AAA expects 39.1 million Americans to travel by car this Memorial Day weekend. Refinery throughput is running near 92-95% utilization to meet gasoline demand. Domestic crude has to feed the refining stack one way or another.
  • US production basically flat: EIA forecasts 13.65 million barrels per day average for 2026, a slight decline from 2025 record levels. Domestic production cannot ramp fast enough to backfill the Hormuz disruption on the timescale required.

When does this hit retail gas prices?

It already has. GasBuddy forecast the national Memorial Day average at $4.48 per gallon, up $1.34 from Memorial Day 2025. The summer-season projection is $4.80, well above the 2022 record summer average of $4.43. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much of the summer, GasBuddy projects prices could hit $5 per gallon nationally or higher.

The SPR releases are slowing the rate of retail price increase, not preventing it. Without those record-breaking weekly draws, the pump-price translation of the Hormuz disruption would already be materially higher. The unanswered question is what happens when the SPR cannot sustain this pace.

Retail propagation from wholesale crude moves typically runs 7 to 14 days for upside shocks, faster than the 2 to 4 week downside lag documented in industry research on asymmetric pass-through behavior. We track the retail propagation across approximately 50,000 US gas stations in our database, with regional spreads visible between PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 5 (West Coast) as different supply regions absorb the shock at different speeds.

What to watch next

Four signals worth tracking over the next three to four weeks:

  1. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, May 28 and June 4. Whether the record-breaking SPR drawdown pace continues, slows, or pauses. A pause or sub-5 million barrel week would signal the DOE is rationing the remaining reserve.
  2. PADD 3 vs PADD 5 retail spread. West Coast retail typically lags Gulf Coast on supply shocks because the regions are largely supplied by different refining networks. A widening spread suggests the disruption is concentrated; a narrowing spread suggests it is generalizing.
  3. DOE refill suspension or pause announcement. If the DOE pauses the ongoing congressional refill program or suspends planned purchases, that signals policymakers expect the disruption to extend through summer.
  4. Iran-US negotiations status. The Pakistani-mediated proposal sequences Hormuz-reopening before nuclear talks. The US has stated preference for nuclear-talks-first. Resolution timing materially affects whether the SPR drawdown pace continues into June and July.

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Bottom line

Two record-breaking SPR drawdowns in two consecutive weeks is the cleanest data signal we have that the supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure is materially worse than the headline crude price suggests. The DOE is using the strategic reserve to absorb the shock and prevent a faster pump-price spike. The reserve has approximately 374 million barrels remaining, the refill rate is one-sixth of the drawdown rate, and the conflict has no near-term resolution path.

For drivers, the actionable read is straightforward: the price you see at the pump this Memorial Day is materially below what it would be without the SPR releases. The releases cannot continue at this pace indefinitely. The next month of EIA reports will tell whether the DOE rations the remaining reserve or continues drawing it at the current record pace.

Frequently asked questions

How much oil was drained from the SPR last week?

9.92 million barrels for the week ending May 15, 2026, per the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released May 20, 2026. That broke the prior all-time weekly record of 8.6 million barrels set just one week earlier (week ending May 8, released May 13). Two consecutive all-time weekly records in two weeks is structurally unprecedented in the EIA data series.

Why is the percentage-basis drawdown bigger than the absolute one?

The denominator shrank. The SPR is now at 374.2 million barrels after the May 15 drawdown, compared to its all-time peak of 726.6 million barrels in January 2010. That is roughly a 48% decline from peak. When you divide a 9.92 million barrel weekly draw by a 374 million barrel reserve, you get about 2.6%, materially larger than the prior 2022 percentage records when the SPR was ~600 million barrels. The structural story is the reserve halving over 15 years, with this weeks draw on top.

What is driving the SPR drawdown?

The 2026 US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure. After US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026 and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to vessels going to or from US, Israeli, and allied ports. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iran on April 13, 2026. With roughly 20% of global oil supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, the DOE has been releasing SPR crude to domestic refineries to keep pump prices from spiking further. The two record-breaking weeks (May 8 and May 15) coincide with the deepest part of the disruption.

How long would it take to refill the SPR after this drawdown?

A long time. The SPRs maximum drawdown rate is 4.4 million barrels per day across all four storage sites. The maximum refill rate is just 785,000 barrels per day, a 5.6x asymmetry. Refilling just this single weeks 9.92 million barrel draw would take about 13 days at peak fill capacity. Refilling the cumulative ~35 million barrels drained in May 2026 alone would take about 45 days at peak fill rate. Refilling to the 2010 peak from todays 374.2 million level would require ~352 million barrels and would take 448 days, or about 15 months, at peak capacity. In practice the refill happens in much smaller increments via congressional appropriations and DOE solicitations, so realistic refill timelines run multiple years.

When will this hit retail gas prices?

It already has. GasBuddy forecast a national Memorial Day average of $4.48 per gallon, up $1.34 from Memorial Day 2025, and a summer-season projection of $4.80 per gallon driven primarily by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The SPR releases are slowing the rate of retail price increase, not preventing it. Retail propagation from wholesale crude moves typically runs 7-14 days for upside shocks (faster than the 2-4 week downside lag documented in our pass-through asymmetry research).

Has the SPR ever been drained this fast before?

No. The prior all-time weekly drawdown record was 8.4 million barrels in September 2022, during the Biden administration response to Russias invasion of Ukraine. Bidens 2022 program released 180 million barrels total at roughly 1 million barrels per day from April through October 2022. The May 2026 record-breaking weeks substantially exceed even that crisis pace, and the percentage-basis impact is bigger because the reserve is now smaller.

Is the SPR going to run out?

Not imminently, but the trajectory is concerning. The SPR was established in 1975 under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act with authorized capacity of 727 million barrels. The reserve sits at 374.2 million barrels today, approximately 51% of authorized capacity. At the May 2026 weekly drawdown pace of 8-10 million barrels per week, the SPR would be exhausted in roughly 37-46 weeks of continued max-pace releases. That is not a realistic projection because the DOE will not drain to zero, but it illustrates how compressed the runway has become.

What should I watch for next?

Three signals. First, the next two EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports (May 28 and June 4) will show whether the record-breaking pace is sustained or was a two-week peak. Second, the PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) vs PADD 5 (West Coast) retail price spread will tell which regions absorb the propagation first. Third, any DOE announcement of refill suspension or pause indicates that policymakers expect the disruption to continue for an extended period. We track the retail propagation across 50,000 US stations in our database.

Sources and citations

  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report

    US Energy Information Administration · EIA Weekly Reports · 2026-05-20

  • US energy firms pull record amounts of crude from SPR last week, EIA says

    BOE Report · BOE Report Industry Coverage · 2026-05-13

  • SPR Quick Facts: Maximum drawdown 4.4 million barrels per day, maximum fill 785 thousand barrels per day

    US Department of Energy · DOE Office of Petroleum Reserves · 2026

  • Weekly US Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (Thousand Barrels)

    US Energy Information Administration · EIA Petroleum Data Navigator · Ongoing

  • 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis and US Naval Blockade of Iran

    Wikipedia Contributors · Wikipedia · 2026

  • BREAKING: US total crude inventories fell last week ~17.8 million barrels, the largest weekly fall since data is available starting in 1982

    Javier Blas · Bloomberg Opinion via X · 2026-05-20

  • The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve just saw its largest one week drawdown in history, both on an absolute basis, and on a percentage basis

    Joe Weisenthal · Bloomberg Odd Lots via X · 2026-05-20

  • GasBuddy Forecasts Most Expensive Summer at the Pump in Years Amid Strait Closure: $4.48 Memorial Day, $4.80 Summer Average Projected

    GasBuddy · GasBuddy Newsroom · 2026-05-20

  • Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Inventory Outlook and Policy Considerations IN12542

    Congressional Research Service · CRS Library of Congress · 2026

All numerical claims in this article verified against EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report data, DOE Office of Petroleum Reserves Quick Facts, Bloomberg Opinion charts published May 20, 2026, GasBuddy forecasts published May 20, 2026, and Congressional Research Service reports on SPR policy. Geopolitical context drawn from Wikipedia coverage of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis and the 2026 US naval blockade of Iran. Last verified 2026-05-20.